James Bond is caught up in a mysterious scenario where the evil villain has him blindfolded. He somehow breaks through the handcuffs but is unable to get the blindfold off. Upon searching, he comes across a bow and 3 arrows. He can hear the villain speak, and thus tries to take a shot at him. He launches the first arrow, it misses the villain. He then launches the second arrow and it misses by a greater margin.
What is the probability that this third shot our James bond takes will be worse than the second shot?
13 decks of cards have been mixed. What is the minimum number of cards that must be taken out from the above-mixed cards to guarantee at least one 'four of a kind?