A woman lives in a skyscraper thirty-six floors high and is served by several elevators which stop at each floor going up and down. Each morning she leaves her apartment and goes to one of the elevators. Whichever one she takes is three times more likely to be going up than down. Why?
James Bond is caught up in a mysterious scenario where the evil villain has him blindfolded. He somehow breaks through the handcuffs but is unable to get the blindfold off. Upon searching, he comes across a bow and 3 arrows. He can hear the villain speak, and thus tries to take a shot at him. He launches the first arrow, it misses the villain. He then launches the second arrow and it misses by a greater margin.
What is the probability that this third shot our James bond takes will be worse than the second shot?