Suppose we lay down two cups in front of you. One of the cups is filled with tea and the other one with coffee. Now we ask you to take a spoonful of tea and mix it with the coffee. At this moment, the coffee cup has a mixture of tea and coffee. You have to take that mixture (spoonful) and add it back to the tea.
Can you now tell if the cup of coffee has more tea or the cup of tea has more coffee?
The chance of Mr John winning the lottery is 10%. All participants lined up and Mr John is 4th in the row. The first three participants lose the lottery.