A girl was sitting in her hotel room when she heard a knock on the door. She opened the door and found that a man was standing outside. The man said, "Oh! I am really sorry, I thought this was my room." He then walked through the corridor to the elevator. The girl did not know the man. She closed her door and called security asking them to apprehend the man. What made her suspicious of that man? He might have been genuinely mistaken.
James Bond is caught up in a mysterious scenario where the evil villain has him blindfolded. He somehow breaks through the handcuffs but is unable to get the blindfold off. Upon searching, he comes across a bow and 3 arrows. He can hear the villain speak, and thus tries to take a shot at him. He launches the first arrow, it misses the villain. He then launches the second arrow and it misses by a greater margin.
What is the probability that this third shot our James bond takes will be worse than the second shot?